Why Tesla is going to dominate for the next 5yrs

[Tirpitz]

I really hope everyone continues to go nuts for the Tesla 3 because I'm hoping to pick up either a killer deal on a new i3 at the end of this year or get a used one really cheap (under $20K) sometime in 2017.

 

[electrons]

3. Value Car: Nissan Leaf or Ford Focus Electric (FFE): I paid just $15k cash for a new '16 FFE recently, and although I really wanted an i3 with no rex, I would have had to pay $10k more (after all fed+state rebates) to get a base i3.

It's more than $25K for a base i3 new, unless your state is giving you some truly impressive incentives.

You're right. Re-figuring, $27.5k is the best I could do on a new 2016 i3 selling for $41k. I might get a leftover off-the-lot new 2015 i3 for $25k though.

I was previously figuring $40k for the i3, which was $10k more than my Ford Focus Electric (MSRP), yet I forgot to figure in the $3.5k Ford rebate and a 2016 i3 goes for $41k, not $40k.

Yes, Colorado gives you $6k, and the Feds give you $7.5k in tax rebates, knocking big chunks off the $$$.
There was a brief proposal to increase the $6k to $8k a while back, paid for by the mass of marijuana stoners we now tax heavily. That got shot down, as much of the stoner-money will have to go right back into rehab and child services to compensate (another topic).
I'm looking forward to the day when batteries are cheap enough to not 'need' all those taxpayer subsidized discounts.

The $15k I paid for the Focus Electric is a great deal, hard to pass up, yet the i3 trounces it via the Carbon Composite fuselage.

I really hope everyone continues to go nuts for the Tesla 3 because I'm hoping to pick up either a killer deal on a new i3 at the end of this year or get a used one really cheap (under $20K) sometime in 2017.

You & me both! Range goes up to 120 miles electric-only (no rex included) on the i3 6 months from now, making the old i3 less valuable, and 3-yr leases are ending. Then Colorado will kick in $3k on a used electric from out-o-state.

It also helps that the Tesla Model 3 is so cool & looks like a race car. Makes the BMW i3 look even uglier, already looking like the love-child of a Pontiac Aztek and Mini-Cooper. Cheaper used i3's result.

 

[Tirpitz]

I really hope everyone continues to go nuts for the Tesla 3 because I'm hoping to pick up either a killer deal on a new i3 at the end of this year or get a used one really cheap (under $20K) sometime in 2017.

You & me both! Range goes up to 120 miles electric-only (no rex included) on the i3 6 months from now, making the old i3 less valuable, and 3-yr leases are ending. Then Colorado will kick in $3k on a used electric from out-o-state.

It also helps that the Tesla Model 3 is so cool & looks like a race car. Makes the BMW i3 look even uglier, already looking like the love-child of a Pontiac Aztek and Mini-Cooper. Cheaper used i3's result.

I think the i3 is not exactly lovely on the outside but I really like what BMW did on the interior. And since I seen the inside more than the outside I'm ok with the polarizing looks. I don't need much range so if I get a super price I'd buy a 2014 or 2015 with the shorter range and not look back.

Now personally I don't like the looks of any of the Tesla cars. They just don't do it for me. But I seem to be in the minority on that which is fine by me. People can like whatever they want.

 

[jadnashuanh]

BMW is offering $2000 on a 2015 right now, at least in some areas.

 

[psquare]

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

$2k off is great for such a car.

There will MANY deals on loads of EVs before the Tesla Model 3 comes out. There will also be loads of other great EVs actually coming out (i.e. the ones you can touch and buy), because the Model 3 won't be out for another at least 2 years.

 

[vmSeattle]

This is a great discussion and lots of good viewpoints. Some I agree, and others, not so much.

Just want to point out that customers are continuing to vote with their pocketbooks and Model 3 pre-orders are now somewhere north of 325,000 for a car most have not even seen in person yet.

I'm hoping and praying that BMW will release a battery upgrade option for our 1st gen i3 cars.

 

[jadnashuanh]

Just want to point out that customers are continuing to vote with their pocketbooks and Model 3 pre-orders are now somewhere north of 325,000 for a car most have not even seen in person yet.

You do realize that it is illegal for GM to take preorders directly? While their dealerships could, they generally do not advertise it, and it is an individual shop owner's prerogative to do it or not. Another reason why the manufacturers and dealer networks are annoyed with Tesla. GM is actually producing cars now, not some moving time way in the future, so that is also going to be interesting to watch. The cars coming off of the line are for verifying and debugging the production line and probably some will go to car magazines for testing, but ones for sale to the public should start being produced in the next few months prior to their fall official intro.

 

[SSi3]

good read

http://qz.com/656443/we-are-now-wit...otion-disruption-of-the-global-auto-industry/

 

[WoodlandHills]

No matter how wonderful a car the i3 is today and how great any i5 might be tomorrow, it will still be serviced and supported by BMW and not Tesla. BMWUSA have no control over their dealers and how they treat their customers and the customers have no way of knowing if their dealer is going to play fair or not until after their purchase. This is NOT the case with Tesla.

Is there any comparison between the service and support of BMW and Tesla where BMW beats Tesla by any metric?

 

[electrons]

No matter how wonderful a car the i3 is today and how great any i5 might be tomorrow, it will still be serviced and supported by BMW and not Tesla. BMWUSA have no control over their dealers and how they treat their customers and the customers have no way of knowing if their dealer is going to play fair or not until after their purchase. This is NOT the case with Tesla.

Tesla does own its own dealerships (not legal in all states to do that!), and that changes things a bit. Of course, independent owners & car makers alike know bad service reduces new car sales. BMW has been pressuring some dealerships to clean up their act where disinterested dealership owners exist.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20160326/OEM02/303289959/bmw-service-satisfaction-will-go-up-willisch-says
Some independent owners think car service is bad everywhere, no matter the make, so they feel free to offer cruddy service & still feel competitive enough to suit them. BMW has some but not a lot of power to correct that attitude.

Is there any comparison between the service and support of BMW and Tesla where BMW beats Tesla by any metric?

Tesla does better because they aren't run by cranky jaded old guys like BMW and other car makers, and not hampered by entrenched locally owned dealerships, true.

Tesla is still riding high on Elon Musk's personality and wide-eyed goals, with motivation to make a name for themselves.

BMW has been losing their edge in recent years, although some of their products are superior (i3 is best electric), arguably falling behind or staying barely even with Cadillac, Audi, Chevrolet (Camaro beats the M4 these days http://www.motortrend.com/news/comparison-2015-bmw-m4-vs-2016-chevrolet-camaro-ss/ ), etc. depending on model of course.

 

[vmSeattle]

Just want to point out that customers are continuing to vote with their pocketbooks and Model 3 pre-orders are now somewhere north of 325,000 for a car most have not even seen in person yet.

You do realize that it is illegal for GM to take preorders directly? While their dealerships could, they generally do not advertise it, and it is an individual shop owner's prerogative to do it or not. Another reason why the manufacturers and dealer networks are annoyed with Tesla.

I'm not quite sure what this has to do with anything. If a new car is coming out that people are excited about, they will go and pre-order it. The customer really could care less if about going to a dealer or a manufacturer directly. My point is that more people have pre-ordered the new Tesla than there are EV's (not including hybrids) currently on the road today.

GM is actually producing cars now, not some moving time way in the future, so that is also going to be interesting to watch. The cars coming off of the line are for verifying and debugging the production line and probably some will go to car magazines for testing, but ones for sale to the public should start being produced in the next few months prior to their fall official intro.

Telsa is producing cars right now, and GM will at some moving time in the future as well.

We live in exciting times, everyone. There is disruption in the industry and this is a good thing for the consumer. Automobile companies will have to adapt and adjust to this new reality or they will no longer be relevant in the market. Just like Uber is doing with the taxi market, Esurance has done to the car/home insurance market, and GE has done to the turbine market.

 

[electrons]

I'm hoping and praying that BMW will release a battery upgrade option for our 1st gen i3 cars.

Doesn't appear to have wide appeal. BMW wants to sell you the latest cars whole. BMW would need to upgrade the software on board as well for you. And, each new battery pack would cost $15,000 and add a thousand more in labor to install. Old battery trade-in could be worth 6,000 though. Existing old battery packs have an 8 to 12 year life too. If you throw a bunch of money at upgrading an old car, if BMW would allow it & cooperate, it could happen.

It would be about as cheap, or cheaper, to just trade in your old i3 on a new 2017 model and get a new $7,500 fed tax rebate.

Tesla has done this upgrade for $18,000 before on less than 1-year old Model S's, but it is an $80k vehicle in the first place.

Most car makers don't want old used cars to be upgradeable, making new car sales go up. We're working against that force.

 

[stumbledotcom]

The reality distortion field around Tesla in general and the Model 3 in particular is probably too strong for historical facts to interfere but I couldn't resist digging up the February 9, 2012 coverage of the Model X prototype reveal from that dubious rag the NY Times.

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/tesla-unveils-model-x-at-its-design-studios/?_r=0

Note the predicted timeline and price—2013 launch at around $50K. The reality was over two years later and 50% dearer for a vehicle that's a variant of the already-in-production Model S. How they'll manage to deliver all their promises for a completely new platform is beyond my simplistic reasoning.

 

[kzod]

The reality distortion field around Tesla in general and the Model 3 in particular is probably too strong for historical facts to interfere but I couldn't resist digging up the February 9, 2012 coverage of the Model X prototype reveal from that dubious rag the NY Times.

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/tesla-unveils-model-x-at-its-design-studios/?_r=0

Note the predicted timeline and price—2013 launch at around $50K. The reality was over two years later and 50% dearer for a vehicle that's a variant of the already-in-production Model S. How they'll manage to deliver all their promises for a completely new platform is beyond my simplistic reasoning.

So true, but the fact is most people should be smart enough to realize that they probably won't come in on time. It doesn't really matter anyways. Even if they fail to release 1 year later it won't hurt the Tesla brand. The fans (short for fanatics) believe that Tesla & Musk are trying to do something special. Nobody else is trying to danything like it. As much as I admire the technology and design of the i3 it is strictly a city car. With the rex it's kind of capable of longer trips, but then you have to deal with maintaining a gas engine. The Bolt may hav 200 miles, but it looks like an econo-box and like the BMW there is no supercharger network to make it easy to drive well past those limits.

 

[jadnashuanh]

I don't know how long this link will stay active, but it's an interesting evaluation on the lithium world supply. http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/technologyinvesting/tesla-tech-icons-scramble-for-lithium-as-prices-double/ar-BBrLLpe?li=BBnbfcN&ocid=edgsp

Note, that in just last Nov-Dec, the price of lithium ores doubled, and in some new contracts, quadrupled. All this, and Tesla trying to furnish a factory designed to match and exceed the current entire world's supply of lithium batteries...the price point on lithium batteries may start going up, rather than becoming cheaper. There's only so much you can do with mass production...it doesn't always make things significantly cheaper. What Tesla has done is eliminate a middle-man, which should offer some savings. Time will tell, but I still doubt Tesla will pull off the often quoted $35K price point on their car to be available maybe in the next two years (not that they've ever delivered when they said they would or at the price point originally stated).

 

[jadnashuanh]

If a new car is coming out that people are excited about, they will go and pre-order it. The customer really could care less if about going to a dealer or a manufacturer directly. My point is that more people have pre-ordered the new Tesla than there are EV's (not including hybrids) currently on the road today.

Telsa is producing cars right now, and GM will at some moving time in the future as well.

We live in exciting times, everyone. There is disruption in the industry and this is a good thing for the consumer. Automobile companies will have to adapt and adjust to this new reality or they will no longer be relevant in the market. Just like Uber is doing with the taxi market, Esurance has done to the car/home insurance market, and GE has done to the turbine market.

The big difference is: Tesla is taking deposits and has an easy way to add them up. Franchise dealerships can, and some do, take deposits on upcoming cars, but since the factory isn't accepting their orders, there is no central location to tally them up. So, while I do believe Tesla has more preorders for their Model 3 than GM's Bolt, who really knows?

And, nothing coming off of Tesla's prototype line is a final version...GM is using their production line to validate their actual production car...two wildly different situations; prototype shoproduction line. Pretty reliable delivery before the end of this year:who knows for sure?

 

[cab]

Over on the Bolt EV subforum of the Chevy Volt site I posted the message below. Although superchargers change the assumptions somewhat, they are still nowhere near as flexible as a range extender for much of the country, so this still applies:

Post:
So per InsideEvs, the 2017 BMW i3 will go into production in about 4 months with a 125 mile EV range (see link at end of this post) which brings up an interesting option vs. the Bolt. First, it is no secret that when the Bolt concept was shown (in orange no less) it looked a LOT like the BMW i3. The dimensions, style, etc - all very similar. The BMW i3 is likely less practical with its goofy suicide doors, but does offer some interesting features and the super-lightweight construction is pretty cool.

Now, since this is a Volt site, I'll assume folks can appreciate the value of a range extending engine for a moment. When I first saw the BMW i3 article I thought "Still nowhere near the Bolt's range". In thinking more about it though, the 125 mile EV range would cover virtually all of my in town/suburban driving needs AND the range extending engine ends up being MORE flexible than the extra 75 miles of battery would be. This is especially true in the fast charger wasteland that is most of America. Even if there were fast chargers, the CCS standard isn't at "Supercharger" level so that becomes a tough sell.

At the end of the day if OUT OF TOWN driving is at all a priority, the combination of a reasonably decent-sized battery and small range extender becomes pretty appealing. Indeed, BMW might elect to increase the size of the tank (even another couple of gallons would be sweet) and notch the power up a tick or two (the latter are probably pipe dreams). Wait, did I just describe the gen 2 Volt? LOL!

To be clear, neither model is great for real long distance drives, but a 200-400 mile round trip model might become a lot more feasible in the BMW i3 than the Bolt while still providing virtually the same amount of electric driving day-to-day. Honestly, this is what the i3 should have been from the get-go. Heck, I bet the additional weight even calms the ride down a bit!

Thoughts?


InsideEvs Link
http://insideevs.com/2017-bmw-i3-to-...iles-expected/

 

[electrons]

Thoughts?
InsideEvs Link
http://insideevs.com/2017-bmw-i3-to-...iles-expected/

Corrected link: http://insideevs.com/2017-bmw-i3-to-enter-production-this-july-epa-range-of-125-miles-expected/

Comparing what Tesla is doing (taking money and generating emotion & the "cool" factor), to the Chevy Bolt, is interesting.
I think the Bolt will beat the Model3 by 2 years, not the merely 1 year some people have said.
The Bolt is already in pre-production, which means we're 6 to 11 months away from the first shipments to dealerships. The Tesla Model3 needs a miracle to make 2 years from now.

I do like pure EV's better than having to lug around ye old heavy dead gasoline engine & explosive tank. One can argue that of course.
Most EV's are for situations where you can use a second car for trips out of town, and the EV is the main go-getter for around town.

Rental car companies like Hertz ought to be really promoting electric cars in the industry, since some people might rent a Hertz way more often for their occasional trip to grandma's house out of state while owning only 1 car, a pure-EV.

Bolt in a pre-production steel hug:

 

[WoodlandHills]

Having a Rex for 18 months has shown that a BEV with 125mi range would be suitable for about 95% of our local driving. The question is whether the additional range should be an ICE or a bigger battery? Either would get the job done, 200mi electric range is sufficient, but a range extended 125mi electric range would work too.

It may come down to actually seeing the Bolt on the lot in the various colors and interiors to decide. As you say the Model 3 is still vaporware and will be for another 2 to 3 years, so it either BMW or GM, :roll:

 

[jadnashuanh]

None of the recharging options, that includes Tesla's and CHADEMO and CCS units, are great, and anywhere near as flexible as an ICE which can be quickly and easily recharged with fuel in short order nearly anywhere. Right now, if you want to take the road less traveled, you're out of luck with an EV. Not so with an ICE, or something with range extender aboard. We've had over 100-years to build up the fuel station to support ICE vehicles...I'm not sure government dollars will come with enough force to help, but the market does not seem to support them as private enterprise, and the car manufacturers, other than Tesla, don't seem to be in the large-scale implementation, at least in the USA. While there are some efforts, they are really all fairly small-scale compared to what's out there to support ICE. It appears that installing a gas station where the turnaround is likely in the 10-minute range verses 20-340 minutes for fast/slow rechargers, especially when you consider the volume of vehicles around just doesn't support things. Pulling into a gas station where all of the pumps are in use means, usually, no more than maybe 5-minutes to get started on yours. Doing the same at an EV charging station, should it be a popular spot, could mean hours before you could even get started. Then, someone may have left their vehicle there while they went out to watch a movie, or shop, or work for the day, or an ICE is blocking the spot, or, which still happens more than at a gas station, the device doesn't work.

I really like my i3, but when (not if) I buy something to replace it, assuming I'd like one car, it will have to be either a hybrid with enough normal EV range, or a serial hybrid like the REx or Volt, where it was designed to be able to easily and comfortably switch to one source of fuel or the other and just keep going, utilizing whatever is available to refuel when the time comes. Tesla doesn't cut it for me. I'm not alone, but then, I may not be in the majority, either. As batteries become more energy dense, the option to recharge at home will become more and more expensive, and less and less possible as it is often the case that the home is not designed to add that big of a new load. Upgrading, if possible, can often be quite expensive, and the public, whether free or not, recharger locations are not designed for everyone to just use them as their only source. There aren't, and probably won't be anytime soon, enough of them around. It's even the case that many of the level 2 EVSE's out there can't recharge the i3 at maximum, let alone a Tesla.

For most people, when we want to go somewhere, we don't always plan, and even then, at least today, you can't always go where you want to with an EV. Until that changes, Tesla, and others won't predominate new car sales.