Edmunds TCO - Fact or Fiction?

[JASmith]

Long story short is I have my own excel spreadsheet where I was comparing specs and math of a few vehicles including the i3, and another forum member recommended I just use Edmunds "True Cost to Own" calculator rather than reinvent the wheel.

For a used 2018 i3 rex, it estimates a purchase price of $21.5K but a total cost after 5 years of ~$44.5K:
https://www.edmunds.com/bmw/i3/2018/cost-to-own/#style=401744391

For say a new 2021 Kona SEL Plus it estimates a higher $23.3K purchase price but a total cost after 5 years of $31.8K:
https://www.edmunds.com/hyundai/kona/2021/cost-to-own/#style=401859230

Is this bogus math, or would a new vehicle actually end up being $12.7K cheaper?

Edit: Also checked on EV's to see if its just an electric thing, and still not as extreme on their #s with a redesigned 2019 Volt showing $35.9K:

And redesigned 2018 Leaf showing ~$31K:

 

[eXodus]

Looks like bogus to me.

If you don't have a catastrophic failure you will never spend $13k for an i3 in maintenance and repairs for 5 years. That must be for a regular ICE BMW - there I see no issue in loosing that much money since it's a BMW (Bring My Wallet)

If you exclude tires - you will have hard time spending $1300. You will have to go to maintenance probably twice - and get the oil and brake fluid change - that's like $400-500 each visit.

I'm with progressive and pay less then $1000 a year for insurance for my 2017

 

[Anonymous]

Yes, totally bogus numbers. Look at the fuel costs listed - $2,959. That calculates out at almost 6,000 miles a year running on the REx? That would work out to running on the REx 50% of the time for an 'average' mileage car. And maintenance at $6,930? The first three years of maintenance are included, so two years of maintenance @ $3,465 a year? Don't think so. Even at BMW prices an oil change plus brake flush and full vehicle check is 1/5th of that. Maybe if you add in several sets of tires - though I'm at 5 + yrs on mine, and only on my 2nd set of tires, original tires were good for 4 years.

 

[JASmith]

Look at the fuel costs listed - $2,959. That calculates out at almost 6,000 miles a year running on the REx? That would work out to running on the REx 50% of the time for an 'average' mileage car.

The number is the same for the non-rex pure EV model, and is almost the same for the EV Leaf.

I think they are using MPGe for the "fuel" calculation, to give some value to home and on-the-road charging, and it may include the initial purchase /install of a home charger, I'm not sure as they don't say, other than that all the EVs I put in their system spit out a "fuel" number.

 

[Anonymous]

I think they are using MPGe for the "fuel" calculation, to give some value to home and on-the-road charging,

Ok, that makes sense, though there has to be a better term to use than 'fuel' for an EV

If my math is right, they show an average of .08 cents a mile for 'fuel' cost, which seems pretty high. I guesstimate my cost for home level 2 charging at under .02 cents a mile including the cost of the charger. I suppose if you had to charge at pay-as-you-go commercial chargers that number would be closer.

Edmunds really needs to have a section where they explain how they got their numbers.

 

[JASmith]

Edmunds really needs to have a section where they explain how they got their numbers.

They don't list sources for their data-farming anywhere, just this: https://www.edmunds.com/tco.html

Car depreciation: how much value the car loses each year
Interest on financing: the amount of interest paid over five years
Taxes and fees: the total of all sales tax, fees and registry costs each year
Insurance premiums: the average cost of insuring the car
Fuel: how much you have to pay for the type of fuel that the car requires — regular or premium gasoline or diesel fuel
Maintenance: the total cost of performing all the scheduled maintenance found in the vehicle's owner's manual
Repairs: the projected cost of fixing common mechanical problems for this vehicle
Federal tax credit: the amount of any tax credit available for alternative fuel vehicles

So one reason maintenance might be high would be if BMW specifies at 15K miles it needs a 100 point inspection or whatever, something anyone can just do themselves at home and most techs would just gloss over anyway, and BMW dealerships have their usual ridiculous fees, then I could see that ballooning costs that most would never experience. Likewise, an oil change anyone can do themselves for free at home, BMW dealerships might charge a fortune for.

What concerns me is that most vehicles seem to be pretty consistent in their numbers in that price range, new and used, but the i3 sticks out being so unusually high in the repair/maintenance columns. When I go to places like repairpal and the like to verify, they don't even have the i3 in the dropdown menu. :|

 

[eXodus]

the i3 BEV 2 year service is like 400-500$ even with the 100 point inspection at the BMW Dealer.

I don't know about the REX oil change Service.

 

[i3Alan]

If you don't have a catastrophic failure you will never spend $13k for an i3 in maintenance and repairs for 5 years. That must be for a regular ICE BMW - there I see no issue in loosing that much money since it's a BMW (Bring My Wallet)

How many $23,000 repair bills at 5 years old (e.g., my i3) does it take to bring the average up to this level?

 

[eXodus]

If you don't have a catastrophic failure you will never spend $13k for an i3 in maintenance and repairs for 5 years. That must be for a regular ICE BMW - there I see no issue in loosing that much money since it's a BMW (Bring My Wallet)

How many $23,000 repair bills at 5 years old (e.g., my i3) does it take to bring the average up to this level?

that would be in the category of catastrophic failure.
Sorry that you had so much trouble with your car.
I know many i3 drivers which really had never anything done aside of regular maintenance and maybe coil spring cover.

Did you had to pay those bills, or was some covered by warranty? I mean I had a repair here and there (window gasket, steeringwheel)
But was all covered.

 

[JASmith]

How many $23,000 repair bills at 5 years old (e.g., my i3) does it take to bring the average up to this level?

Was yours one of those ones where the AC failed and contaminated the battery with metal shards and what not?

 

[agzand]

If you buy CPO BMW offers 0.9% for 3 years or 1.49% for 5 years. So the finance charge is also questionable.

I also think both repair and maintenance are exaggerated on average, regardless it could have a higher running cost than a new Kona. If you want a low cost EV try Leaf or Bolt or a new Ioniq.

 

[i3Alan]

How many $23,000 repair bills at 5 years old (e.g., my i3) does it take to bring the average up to this level?

Was yours one of those ones where the AC failed and contaminated the battery with metal shards and what not?

(Answering eXodus, too.)

My then 5 year old 2014 i3 BEV had the AC go out and it did fill the entire system, including the lines through the battery with metal shards. They opened and photograph for me a few AC lines in different locations, and all had visible metal filings inside. It was a year out of warranty, and BMW said here is $1000 as good will (avoiding any explicit apology or acceptance of any responsibility). The dealer said it was BMW's issue, not theirs.

My car had a book value of about $16K at the time, and I got about $8K as salvage value on a trade in for a new LEAF. My loss was about $7000 after the goodwill check. The LEAF was intended to hold me over until the upcoming Tesla Y came out. When the Y did come out, I was disappointed in a number of ways and passed. I am now driving a brand new Mustang Mach-E First Edition with dual motor all-wheel drive and about 300 mile range (88KWh useable battery).

 

[agzand]

Since battery was damaged you could have pushed for battery warranty. But unless it is not a common failure the manufacturer doesn't have an obligation to cover every single occurrence. There is some risk with purchasing any car (including Mach e), the only way to completely mitigate it is to purchase an expensive extended warranty.

 

[i3Alan]

Since battery was damaged you could have pushed for battery warranty. But unless it is not a common failure the manufacturer doesn't have an obligation to cover every single occurrence. There is some risk with purchasing any car (including Mach e), the only way to completely mitigate it is to purchase an expensive extended warranty.

My i3 battery was in fine shape when the AC went out. Had I continued using the vehicle without cooling, I likely would have damaged the battery, but I question whether there would be any valid battery claim. Even if there was a valid battery warranty claim, it still does not address the $23K repair bill on the AC, only an eventually destroyed battery. Most probably, the car would have shut itself down before letting the battery be damaged. No battery damage is no battery warranty claim.

When a car is designed without adequate attention to maintenance, then the manufacturer needs to fix related maintenance issues, including adding to the warranty where appropriate.

BMW decided to use an AC system with huge additional complexity over conventional auto AC systems. It included two separate heat pumps with significantly increased number of control valves required. This much is fine, as it provides huge user advantages. However, they decided to run the AC lines through the battery, rather than interface with the battery cooling using heat exchangers like every other EV (except for Nissan which does not actively cool the battery at all). Then, the really serious problem here is that in spite of the far more complexity designed into the i3 HVAC system, BMW insanely REDUCED normal protection for the AC components. They left out an effective trap for particulates inside the system. Such traps are typically part of the dryer design, or added separately after the compressor, and such a trap would have prevented an AC compressor failure from taking out an additional ~$18,000 of downstream components should the compressor fail. BMW should take responsibility for catastrophic failures caused by their inadequate design, as well as improve the design to avoid future failures. It seems that they did fix the design, since all reported failures like this that I have heard of are in 2014 and 2015 i3s only.

BTW, the Mach-E does not have a heat pump. That sucks for cold weather folks as the hit on range is far greater with electric-resistance heating. However, for me in Phoenix where heating needs are minimal, I enjoy a simpler system with lower potential maintenance risks. Given 300 mile range with the Mach-E, the advantage of a heat pump is further reduced, as most who need that range, will be doing more driving and less sitting, meaning the battery will spend more time self-heating (it keeps itself warm once warmed up and kept in use), and the heated seats and steering wheel is adequate for much of the cabin heating needs, which is more efficient than even a heat pump for the entire cabin.

 

[jadnashuanh]

As a percentage of people that have had a catastrophic battery cooling problem, it's miniscule, so putting that into the equation for average running costs is kind of flaky. That is not a wear item. If you take into account normal wear items (brakes, maintenance, oil change, filters, checks), the cost should be much less.

Then again, my 2014 i3 BEV only has about 17K miles on it, and I'll be getting rid of it probably this week, but it has been pretty reliable. I did have a nearly $1K unexpected bill on it last year which was related to the a/c system...it was a valve that was stuck, so they had to dismantle things, purge the system, replace the valve, then refill...it's been fine since.

BMW sells 50-70K of them a year, and you don't hear about many with that failure. If you're the unfortunate one to have it, that has little help, but it is what it is.

 

[iflyadesk]

How many $23,000 repair bills at 5 years old (e.g., my i3) does it take to bring the average up to this level?

Was yours one of those ones where the AC failed and contaminated the battery with metal shards and what not?

(Answering eXodus, too.)

My then 5 year old 2014 i3 BEV had the AC go out and it did fill the entire system, including the lines through the battery with metal shards. They opened and photograph for me a few AC lines in different locations, and all had visible metal filings inside. It was a year out of warranty, and BMW said here is $1000 as good will (avoiding any explicit apology or acceptance of any responsibility). The dealer said it was BMW's issue, not theirs.

My car had a book value of about $16K at the time, and I got about $8K as salvage value on a trade in for a new LEAF. My loss was about $7000 after the goodwill check. The LEAF was intended to hold me over until the upcoming Tesla Y came out. When the Y did come out, I was disappointed in a number of ways and passed. I am now driving a brand new Mustang Mach-E First Edition with dual motor all-wheel drive and about 300 mile range (88KWh useable battery).

I would think the lesson learned with your A/C disaster wouldn't be "don't ever buy a BMW" but rather "don't ever buy a car in its first year of production... particularly if the design is a significant departure from what the brand has done before."

I've never designed a car, but I've been both an engineer and a manager and the tension between management and engineering as the looming deadline approaches is for real scary and painful. Some things don't get addressed because some engineers don't have the political sway or people skills/tact to get the right information to the right people in time or the financial and legal costs of missing a deadline are unacceptable. All of this crap usually gets resolved "eventually" but buying any new-for-the-team product that had to make a deadline is scary in my book.

 

[i3Alan]

I would think the lesson learned with your A/C disaster wouldn't be "don't ever buy a BMW" but rather "don't ever buy a car in its first year of production... particularly if the design is a significant departure from what the brand has done before."

The lesson I learned is that BMW will not stand behind their mistakes, and being a first year production is no excuse whatsoever. Note that BMW had been producing hybrid vehicles with all-electric variable-speed AC systems for years, and it was the AC system that failed, not the carbon fiber body, or the brand new electric battery and inverter, or any of the other items of significant departure from what the brand had done before.

The design mistake resulted in a $23K repair quote. My actual loss was the difference between fair market value with a good AC, and salvage value with no AC, which was an $8K difference. Had BMW been willing to give me fair market value with a good AC as trade value towards a new i3, I would be driving a '19 (then new) i3 today. That would have cost them $8K (not $23K), resulted in another i3 sale, and kept a valued customer. They saved the $8K, lost a sale, and now have a well earned life-long antagonist.

On the other hand, ...

Totally loved my first production year 2002 Lexus GS I drove 9 years and over 100K miles. It was a new platform that year, totally changed from the 2001 GS. Hated the totally changed 2007 GS, so I moved on. The GS needed zero warranty service, but a new radiator overflow bottle (~$200) at 7 years. No other repairs.

Really loved my first production year 2007 Toyota Camry hybrid I drove 7 years and 100K miles. It was the first hybrid put in a Camry, which otherwise was minimally changed that year. A 12V battery was its ONLY repair.

Still loving my first production year 2013 Lexus ES hybrid with 60K miles so far. It was the first Lexus based on the Avalon, in a year that platform was significantly changed. It has needed a new radio (replaced in the first year under warranty, swapped out for me at my office), and a 12V battery.

I am really loving my first production year, 2021 First Edition Mustang Mach-E, a massive departure from all previous Mustangs and other Ford products.