The EV marketplace in 2018?

[WoodlandHills]

Interesting article at Green Car Reports this morning

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099596_electric-cars-will-evolve-rapidly-by-2018-split-into-segments-by-price

For me there were two interesting points: the manufacturers are all in agreement that the American Public insist on 150 to 200 mile range. And that the market will be broken into two very different classes, a base class in the $30k range and a premium class in the $100k range to compete with Tesla.

As to the first point an 80 mile range i3 does not look like a very good used car to be trading in on a 150 mile replacement in 2017 or 2018.

Second, the $55k i3 looks to be an outlier in a two class EV world. This may be a blessing for BMW or it could turn into a curse, only time will tell and as a leassor I have no skin in the game so it will be fun to watch it all play out over the next few years.

 

[spinball]

The i3 is $43k not $55k.

This article shows the current situation with BEVs in the US. You can see the i3 is on the high end (as expected for BMW) and right inline with the MB B-Class.

IMO none of the current crop of BEVs under $80k will be very good used cars by 2017-2018 if range is the buyer's primary concern. My feeling is that range will still very much be the buyer's primary concern. Even those that make do with 80 mi range today will still not be willing to pay much for one vs a comparable car with double that range.

 

[epirali]

Interesting article at Green Car Reports this morning

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099596_electric-cars-will-evolve-rapidly-by-2018-split-into-segments-by-price

For me there were two interesting points: the manufacturers are all in agreement that the American Public insist on 150 to 200 mile range. And that the market will be broken into two very different classes, a base class in the $30k range and a premium class in the $100k range to compete with Tesla.

As to the first point an 80 mile range i3 does not look like a very good used car to be trading in on a 150 mile replacement in 2017 or 2018.

Second, the $55k i3 looks to be an outlier in a two class EV world. This may be a blessing for BMW or it could turn into a curse, only time will tell and as a leassor I have no skin in the game so it will be fun to watch it all play out over the next few years.

I can see a "middle" market if the $35K and under BEVs stick to a sub-luxury standard (as I would also expect the Model 3 to be looking at the fact that Model S doesn't quite hit luxury well either). So BMW could stick to the middle and provide entry-level luxury with 200 mile range. This would still be compelling, specially if they are still the only ones with a Rex component. With a bigger battery they could extend the range of the Rex and provide a car that could do almost 400 miles between battery and gasoline. I think that is still a pretty compelling idea.

 

[spinball]

I agree with epirali. In 2017 a 200 mi range i3 around a similar price is still compelling, probably more so with REx. No way will it remain compelling for 80 mile range!

 

[WoodlandHills]

The i3 is $43k not $55k.

This article shows the current situation with BEVs in the US. You can see the i3 is on the high end (as expected for BMW) and right inline with the MB B-Class.

IMO none of the current crop of BEVs under $80k will be very good used cars by 2017-2018 if range is the buyer's primary concern. My feeling is that range will still very much be the buyer's primary concern. Even those that make do with 80 mi range today will still not be willing to pay much for one vs a comparable car with double that range.

Mine listed for $55k as delivered.

 

[spinball]

Mine listed for $55k as delivered.

So did mine, but the starting price of a BEV is $43k. When making comparisons against the competition usually the base price is used for all models to keep things relative. Model S can be optioned to $135k, for instance.

 

[WoodlandHills]

True. But, either $43k or $55k is still a lot more than the new $30k Klasse! Again, this may well be to BMWs benefit if they have a compelling product, I just do not think the i3 circa 2015 is going to be that product, there are going to have to be major improvements in range (X2 at a minimum) for people to pay such a premium over the rest of the market. Unlocking the REx and adding a 5 gallon tank would be a big help too, as would putting "normal" tires on it so it would not look like a Donk. Everyone else seems to get decent range with tires that are not a one off model from only one maker.....
I sure hope that BMw has been listening to all the chatter on the various forums and has incorporated that into the new i5 and in updates to the venerable i3.

 

[jadnashuanh]

The BMW i3 beats most anything out there in mpge for a reason, one of those is the tires. Grip is a function of tire patch. The i3's is long, smaller diameter wheels that are wider may easily end up with the same tire patch, but oriented across the tire verses along the direction of travel. But, it is the total tire patch that determines how much grip you have. The i3's grip is more a function of the low-rolling resistance tires than the size. Overall handling is more a function of the tread pattern selected than the diameter.

There have been lots of promises about improved battery tech hitting the market. Wait and see how well it works, and how close it comes to the projections. Once you have that in hand, then, you can decide. For my use, the i3 as delivered does everything I wanted it to. Only when an EV or a plug-in hybrid can let me go as far and as long as I can in my ICE will I be ready to replace that, and, if I'm lucky, it may be with one vehicle rather than two. In the interim, given my use patterns, the range on the current BEV is more than enough for my needs. Given the size of the vehicle, I just would not be comfortable driving it cross-country, even if it was capable of it. Whatever replaces it would have to be up to that task, whether that's more in line with something like the Volt's drivetrain, or the i8's, I don't really care at this time. Not really worried about residual value, but obviously, some are. I expect it will be 5-years or more before a vehicle shows up that meets my needs, and by then, no matter what you may have bought, it would have depreciated quite a bit. I might just keep the i3.

 

[mindmachine]

The BMW i3 beats most anything out there in mpge for a reason, one of those is the tires. Grip is a function of tire patch. The i3's is long, smaller diameter wheels that are wider may easily end up with the same tire patch, but oriented across the tire verses along the direction of travel. But, it is the total tire patch that determines how much grip you have. The i3's grip is more a function of the low-rolling resistance tires than the size. Overall handling is more a function of the tread pattern selected than the diameter.

There have been lots of promises about improved battery tech hitting the market. Wait and see how well it works, and how close it comes to the projections. Once you have that in hand, then, you can decide. For my use, the i3 as delivered does everything I wanted it to. Only when an EV or a plug-in hybrid can let me go as far and as long as I can in my ICE will I be ready to replace that, and, if I'm lucky, it may be with one vehicle rather than two. In the interim, given my use patterns, the range on the current BEV is more than enough for my needs. Given the size of the vehicle, I just would not be comfortable driving it cross-country, even if it was capable of it. Whatever replaces it would have to be up to that task, whether that's more in line with something like the Volt's drivetrain, or the i8's, I don't really care at this time. Not really worried about residual value, but obviously, some are. I expect it will be 5-years or more before a vehicle shows up that meets my needs, and by then, no matter what you may have bought, it would have depreciated quite a bit. I might just keep the i3.

I agree with Jim almost 100%. Battery tech is not going to come along as fast as some people think. That being said I will wait and see , and I believe the i3 will serve me quite well for 4 or 5 years.