I'm in the same boat. Here in Chicago, the BEVs are nearly toxic given the cold winters affecting driving range. I did notice some unscrupulous dealers (Baron BMW in KC) that were advertising low pricing with the lease incentive attached as an advertised price reduction. They quickly changed their ads to reflect that their advertised price included the BMW lease incentive, making their pricing only average.
However, I've received several quotes reflecting 15% off before any incentives or tax credits/rebates. I would figure that advertised price can include the $2000 innovations credit, as that can be part of the total real discount, but the lease incentive only (partially) replaces the tax credit you'd get for Uncle Sam with a purchase. I haven't pulled the trigger as I think that I can get even more of a discount, and truly, I wouldn't buy without a substantial further discount.
Look at some of the inventory in Chicago, especially at Bill Jacobs and Elmhurst for a good idea of some low advertised (and real) prices. For example, there's a ionic Tera BEV with both packages, heated seats, quick Charge, and HK for 42.6K reflecting over 8K off advertised, and I suspect more could be negotiated. Without taxes and registration, thats a net 30K with Illinois/federal incentives and BMWCCA rebate.