Mini EV will kill used i3 prices

[ted99]

Mini has announced that the new EV Mini, to be released in March 2020, Base model will be priced at $30K. The Base model spec looks to be pretty good. In TX, the Fed Tax Credit and the State rebate will bring the actual cost of the Base Mini to about $20K--even better in CA, I think. In the Houston area, 3-yr old i3's are selling for around $20K and they have an equivalent or smaller battery than the new EV Mini. If I were offered the choice of a $20K 3 yr old i3 or a new Mini for $20K, I wouldn't have to think very hard to make my choice. Yes, there are differences. Mini is 151" long, i3 is 158" with a "half" rear door. Only 3" difference in wheelbase. The Mini is heavier by about 600#, probably due to the CF body on the i3. Mini uses the i3 powertrain with drive switched from rear to front. The REX will help with sales for people worried about range, but not for long, I think. The popular imagination thinks the i3 looks "wierd" whereas the Mini is a pop-culture icon. I think that after next March, the price of a 3 yr old off-lease i3 is going to be pretty close to $15K, at best. In my opinion, that will be the bargain of the Western World.

 

[KrisM]

If the build quality from the new Mini EV is the same a the previous petrol models then I say no thank you. It was rubbish compared
to the BMW build standards, at least that was my experience with the Mini my wife had. I drive with BMW since the mid-80s and have
seen the quality decrease with the years but the MIni was much much worse.

 

[eNate]

The reality of it is, everything electric coming cooking now will "kill used i3 praises."

When BMW announced there'll be no i3 successor, I believe they were acknowledging that eventuality. I'd expect they'll continue to be made in its current form, maybe with another refresh, until buyers lose interest.

 

[ted99]

I think the comment on Mini build quality could apply to any British auto. I know it's certainly been my experience with a RR, Daimler, and multiple MG's. It's the reason I have walked away from the i-Pace, despite discounts of over $10K in my area. But, we the cognoscenti, are not the typical buyer and the appeal of the Mini to a certain demographic is undeniable. I also agree that all of the new EV's coming out with 200 mi range will damage the resale value of the i3. BUT, the EV Mini will be a really hard hit because it's an equivalent size to the i3 and VERY low cost compared to other EV's, except for the Korean offerings. I suspect that the "prestige" appeal of BMW in the i3-size segment is not greater than the Mini. Think of all the movies where the Mini has been a featured player.

 

[eNate]

True, can't dismiss that brand cachet and distinctive look.

However, this is another instance where the purpose-built i3 is ahead of its time.

Over the next 10 or 20 years the general public is going to slowly accept a new vision of what a car should look like. Hoods to house gasoline engines are going to be looked at as old fashioned and as a liability.

Almost everything available out now sticks with that form factor -- even Tesla -- I believe because "it looks like a car."

Maybe in five or seven years old i3s will be slightly more desirable than similarly aged Minis, depending on how quickly perception shifts. But technology is changing so rapidly that in that time span, face it, none of these cars will be worth enough that it's going to make much difference to anybody's bottom line.

 

[Anonymous]

If the build quality from the new Mini EV is the same a the previous petrol models then I say no thank you. It was rubbish compared
to the BMW build standards, at least that was my experience with the Mini my wife had.

My experience too - I think the shop got to drive my Mini more than I did. I'd never buy another. Mini build quality is just not up to normal BMW standards at all, and it will be built along side petrol Mini's in the UK, so build quality isn't likely to change.

Plus the Mini EV will be small. Smaller than the i3 (and almost a thousand pounds heavier). It's rival will be the Fiat.

 

[sipabit]

If the Mini EV does well in sales, I suspect it won't be in the USA. It's about 3 years late. Although I'm still an advocate for low range vehicles being suitable for more people than who will admit, that's not really the mindset of buyers these days. Buyers still think 150 miles is too low of a range so when Mini comes out with a new car and it's 115mi, I don't think it's going to be highly praised.

As others have mentioned about Mini's reputation, it's not going to help them either. Right or wrong, that's the overall image of the Mini brand. I wanted to love it too. The retro styling, small size that I love, performance oriented car with a soul really hit the bill. But with my own experience with my mom's early model one, it's not something I'd want to buy. But then again, people aren't really buying new EV's unless they're Teslas. So I suppose the mindset of leasing a vehicle is different and people may be willing to temporarily "own" a Mini just as long as they're not responsible for repairs. Enough Mini bashing.

The specs overall for the Mini EV just don't satisfy what people are looking for. Again, I think the Mini EV would be more than suitable and meet the needs of many, but there will be a lot of people who just don't recognize it. With people still thinking they need a 150mi car to drive them their average 35mi a day (average in the US for commutes in California, even fewer miles in other states), they won't be settling for a 115mi car anytime soon.

 

[Anonymous]

The specs overall for the Mini EV just don't satisfy what people are looking for. Again, I think the Mini EV would be more than suitable and meet the needs of many, but there will be a lot of people who just don't recognize it

Maybe the Mini EV will help change that mindset. I keep seeing TV ads promoting the idea that "Electric cars are normal now too". A lower priced EV from a brand with a decent market share may help push like competition from other brands, and bring new-car EV prices down into the more affordable realm of the 'mass-market' buyer.

Add in a stronger push for public electrification/charging stations, and EVs will suddenly become main-stream. In my area, new public charging stations are staring to pop up, many free. A national movie theater chain just added four free EV charging spots to all their locations near me (paid for by advertising spots sold on the stations - like the big ad pillar/kiosks in malls - the charging station at the theater I noticed was advertising GEICO insurance ) , as has several restaurants.

 

[ted99]

I agree with the notion that the i3 will wear well. The CF structure is, and will remain, unique. Only two ferrous metals in the chassis--rear control arms-- and plastic body means that corrosion won't be a factor in longevity. If you don't have the REX motor, it's hard to think of what could require much maintenance. I suspect that as time goes on, replacement battery modules may be hard to come by, as will the unique tires which have only one manufacturer. IMO, in the next couple of years, used i3's will bottom out in price and will probably never go below $12K, or so. As I said, I think a 3 YO used i3 a year from now will be the bargain of the Western World.

 

[skeptic]

Let's be honest, most people couldn't care less about a carbon fiber structure or how much the car weighs or corrosion resistance. They care about range first, acceleration and handling then possibly RWD/FWD/AWD. Additionally, some people are going to care about the range extender, and purchase price figures in somewhere. This isn't MY priority list, but clearly I'm in the minority (along with most i3 owners). Let me put it another way, the Chevy Bolt is cheaper, better range, faster 0-60, FWD, rides comparatively crappy (according to reviews), with traditional build materials, cheap suspension and a lesser build quality. It also outsells the i3 by more than 4 to 1 in the US. There is obviously a lot more that goes into car choice, size, coupe/sedan/crossover/suv/truck/etc., looks, etc. I'm just talking about comparisons within a general class - ie small 5-door hatch like the i3/leaf/bolt/etc.

There are a plethora of EVs coming out over the next few years, many with greater range and lower price than an i3. This will drive down used i3 prices even more (already a great value with it's terrible resale).

FWIW, you can already find i3s with an asking price as low as $10k. Over the next few years I wouldn't be surprised to see high mileage 60Ah models going for as low as $5k.

 

[Anonymous]

It (Chevy Bolt EV) also outsells the i3 by more than 4 to 1 in the US

Reason:

the Chevy Bolt EV is cheaper

If BMW priced the i3 the same as the Chevy Bolt - it would outsell the bolt.

 

[skeptic]

Isn't that my point? Most people don't care about carbon fiber this or plastic body panels that. Honestly, if the i3 was priced the same as the Bolt I wouldn't be surprised if the Bolt still outsold the i3. In 2017 the Bolt's range was about double or triple, depending on which i3, and even with the latest i3 breaking 150 miles per charge it's still considerably less than a Bolt. I'm not trying to turn into an i3 vs Bolt argument, and I personally would not buy a Bolt unless GM comes out with a RWD/AWD version in the future. I'm just saying used car prices are based on what most people are looking for, and the 80ish or even 115ish mile range is kinda dismal in comparison, so prices are going to reflect that. It's good for me 'cause I'll just buy a Rex, and crappy resale = great deal if I keep it long enough.

 

[ColA]

In the UK the 120 Ahr i3 has a greater range than the new eMini. The i3 also has much more interior space, however, the Mini brand is very popular and there will be a strong market appeal. So it’s a case of a far better car (the i3) against market appeal (the Mini). Interesting to see what will happen.

 

[eNate]

No doubt price is a major factor. Or maybe the BMW badge, which some might automatically dismiss because of preconceptions about the brand.

But you can't ignore availability, nor aesthetics.

Bolts are everywhere around here. Three families at my kids' gym class showed up in Bolts. Maybe they decided based on price, but noticing them on the street begets more notice, so another family shopping for a car might check one out.

I'm not calling the i3 scarce. But they are most definitely fewer in the US than Bolts, so even if every available i3 was snatched off the dealer lot right away, there would still be fewer of them to notice.

And face it, the i3 is a polarizing car. Even though there are plenty of them on the roads around here, I never even "put it on my list" until I was into the Kia Niro shopping process. I think I subconsciously dismissed it because it looked small and weird and I assumed it was tiny on the inside.

I think I gave about an ounce of consideration to the Bolt, but it really was too small and not something I looked at, other than a Doug DeMuro video.

 

[sipabit]

Although I can see where the logic is coming from and it's all true being that it's common when new cars are coming out and people have more choices, the instance with the i3 very unusual and what normally would be the case may not be relevant to the i3. Here's why.

Granted, the pricing of used i3's are based on a bunch of factors that are no different than other cars and therefore experiences price drops, there are a few things that are unique to the i3's in terms of timing. We won't experience this again:

EV's being new.
People weren't ready to commit, so they leased. I hear over 95% of i3's were leased. So when they all came off lease, they created a huge surge in available i3's. So many in fact that pricing on these from the dealer were better than private sales. By the way for anyone reading this, I believe a new flux of i3's just came off lease in the USA. There's 3x more i3's on the used market as of a couple weeks ago than a couple months ago. Back to the topic. Now that people are more familiar with EV's, there's less fear. Consumers will never be as fearful as they were 6 years ago.

The Tesla effect.
The "affordable" Tesla can only come out once and that's already happened. In 2018 before the base model 3 came out, everyone and their mom was waiting for one. It seemed like a lot of demand for EV's, but in reality there was none. All these people were sitting on their hands waiting for the release of it. So during the best time to get an i3 as far as prices were concerned, the demand was pretty much zero. Everyone (most) considering an EV wanted a model 3 or at least thought they did so they didn't move. They stuck with their reservation, transferred it, sold it, ditched it. Whatever the case, money never left their hands b/c the Model 3 wasn't out yet.

Now that the Model 3 is out, everyone who actually committed to it who wants one, got one. Not that they ever considered the i3, but they're in even less of a place to buy an i3.

Conclusion
We won't see the above scenarios repeat. I believe that we've already hit rock bottom on i3 prices. $11,200 is as cheap as it gets for it to be worth buying. BEV 2014. We may see these drop further over time of course as with all cars, but by then the cars will have too many miles (2014-2016 ones are already out of warranty) for it to be worth considering.

Even the first generation Nissan Leaf dropped to $5k at one point but jumped to $7k-8k with more miles than the ones sold for $5k.

The current pricing on i3's as I write this is low $23k-25k for a well optioned 2017 (94ah) REX with about 25-35k miles. Last year that figure was in the high $20's through $30-33k. It's dropped a bunch. Base 2016 Rex models can be had in the teens easily.

I have another article on here about how I don't think EV's will be replacing gas cars due to lack of education of the general public. I don't think that will change anytime soon. Anyone who's considering an i3 is already considering it. It's not the price that's holding them back so any changes in pricing aren't going to make them pull the trigger. As we i3 owners know, there's a lot to hate about the i3 (that we as owneres just happen to accept or adore). The car turns a lot of people off.

Ones already considering it may or may not make their move, but we won't see people all of a sudden interested in i3's. That doesn't mean that prices will drop any further. Some of these cars may literally just sit. I'd be surprised if we see optioned out 94ah i3's sell in the teens, but I suppose it could happen. Maybe in a few years but not within 3. I might lose that bet and I'm willing to take a loss, but I'm placing it here. Feel free to call me out on it in 3 years. If I'm wrong and you're in the Bay Area, I'll get you an bubble milk tea of your choice. First 5 people.

 

[sipabit]

It (Chevy Bolt EV) also outsells the i3 by more than 4 to 1 in the US

Reason:

the Chevy Bolt EV is cheaper

If BMW priced the i3 the same as the Chevy Bolt - it would outsell the bolt.

Nope, it outsells because of the range. 153 miles for the i3 vs the 259 miles for the Bolt. The Bolt was essentially the cheap Tesla you can buy now (now meaning the time it was released). Key word is now and the unsaid key word is range. When the Bolt came out and even now at Q4 of 2019, people were fearful of i3's with under 100 miles of range. Even the 94ah gets 115mi and that's not enough to make people think it's any different. You may be surprised but 153mi isn't enough for them either.

Don't underestimate how uneducated the general public is about EV's and particularly their own driving needs. CA has the highest average in the USA for daily commute miles and it's still less than 40mi yet people still demand 200-300miles of range for their 40mi commutes. I can talk my mouth off about how consumers think they need more range than they really do, but I already did in a different thread so I'll save you from having to hear me ramble on.

 

[sipabit]

In the UK the 120 Ahr i3 has a greater range than the new eMini. The i3 also has much more interior space, however, the Mini brand is very popular and there will be a strong market appeal. So it’s a case of a far better car (the i3) against market appeal (the Mini). Interesting to see what will happen.

Until I read your post, I hadn't thought about it but the i3 doesn't really have a segment. Consumers get confused about where it stands, why it fits them and all that. They don't bother thinking about it. Add that to all the misconceptions about the car and it's no wonder sales are so low. The Mini defines itself clearly in its own class. I don't think it'll necessarily attract new buyers to the brand. My guess and I could be off, is that buyers will be people who would've already bought a gas Mini or who have always wanted one. It brings people who were on the fence. It won't be displacing people from other brands or segments.

That's my guess anyway.

 

[eNate]

Don't underestimate how uneducated the general public is about EV's and particularly their own driving needs. CA has the highest average in the USA for daily commute miles and it's still less than 40mi yet people still demand 200-300miles of range for their 40mi commutes.

Spot on. I'm an Android user and, before buying, I went in to my Google Maps timeline and reviewed my daily driving habits for the past few months. My daily average has been in the neighborhood of 45 miles, and I had only a couple of 100+ mile days, not including trips.

Level 3 chargers aren't on every street corner, but there are enough around me that it's not an imposition to plan a stop at one for 30 minutes on the four instances I've needed extra mileage.

It's a change in mindset from gasoline, that's all.

 

[sipabit]

Yup.
Myself, I'm out of the norm. I drive about 70-75mi day. I do charge at both ends to avoid gas and since electricity is free when a Tesla isn't hogging up the spot.

 

[skeptic]

I mainly agree with sipabit, but I still disagree on the importance of range. An 80 mile BEV may work for commuting for most people, but factor in cold weather, highway speeds, wanting the comfort of full AC/heat and that 80 mile range starts shrinking fast. Then consider wanting to use the car for more than just commuting, be it day trips or even longer trips. It's also worth pointing out that someone with a 150 mile daily commute would get a much bigger benefit from an EV than someone putting under 40 miles or whatever the average commute time is.

What if you forget to charge it one night? What if you depend on charging at work, but you show up and all chargers are taken? I could go on and on, but the reality is the longer the range the more functionality it offers for more people. As I've mentioned elsewhere, I wouldn't even consider a non-REX i3.

As for future prices, we are all just guessing and my crystal ball isn't any better than anyone elses, but I'd be shocked if 3 years from now 60Ah i3s are not easily available in the $5k-$10k range, with 94Ah models going for $10k-$12k. Low range, no highway speed "autopilot" or even Traffic Jam Assist, no Android Auto (not sure when they added Apple Carplay), overpriced skinny tires, disappointing list of standard features, questionable future (it's canceled, then it's not) and almost no public buzz or excitement. It's still what I plan to buy after I finish my kitchen/family room remodel, RWD + REX plus all the positive reviews and not that god-awful joke of a model 3 interior is enough for me.