Expected value of a 2014 in a few years?

[Schnort]

I'm running out of my owners choice in a week and need to make a decision that will hold me through for a few years, expecting to buy or lease a model 3 or whatever is available at the time.

I can buy my current car (basest 2014 i3 BEV with only heated seats as an option) for ~$19000 (total cost, $26700 paid to the dealer which includes the $7500 I owe them if I just return the car). Unfortunately, I need to pay sales tax on the $19000. Looking on truecar.com, I see that the lowest price in my general area with more miles is ~$20K.

Looking around, my options are:
- LEAF lease, 3years @$320/month-ish = $11520
- buy used LEAF, ~$9500
- buy a honda something or other and hope for low depreciation when I trade into a new EV

So, I'm in a bit of a quandary. Any guestimates on where on the depreciation curve on the 2014 is? What would you guess the i3 would be worth in 2-3 years? $12000? less?

 

[Silence]

I don't have anything to go by, but I think $12,000 may be optimistic. I'm purchasing a fully loaded 2014 Rex and I think I'd be pleased to get 12K for it in 3 years. In a few years there will be the Model 3, the Bolt, and probably an additional two, three, or more vehicles at the "lower" end of the price spectrum that get over 200 miles to a charge. My guess is that this will have a pretty negative impact on the value of pre-owned sub 100 miles per charge vehicles.

 

[Schnort]

Yeah, I tend to agree. That would put my cost of ownership for 3 years at ~$10k or more if i could only manage $10k resale out of it. Yuck.

 

[jadnashuanh]

Given what the i3 does, and is likely to continue to do, if it meets your needs, why buy a new car? Depreciation is always one of the biggest costs, but the percentage per year drops the longer you hold the car. Now, if it doesn't really meet your needs, that's another thing altogether. In my case, the car has more than enough range to suit my needs, and I don't see replacing it any time in the near future unless I get bored with it or one car could replace the two I have and still meet all of my needs (the ability to take long trips, but mostly stay electric). I've not been impressed with the currently available hybrids, and like the idea of the on-board generator...it's just that it would need to be larger than that in the REx and with a larger fuel tank to meet my needs. Personally, while I have no issue using the car in its intended fashion, running around town, short trips, I do not find it all that great on longer trips. It all depends on what you're used to, and your expectations...the i3 doesn't meet mine for longer trips, which is why I didn't even bother considering the REx option.

 

[Schnort]

In my mind, owning the i3 past warranty is a giant unknown of cost.

Service on BMWs isn't cheap, and the i3 is a special beast.

I expect "normal" repairs on the i3 to be very expensive, and any body repairs will likely be outrageous and total the car.

I like driving it, but I'm not keen on it's long term costs.

And, no matter what, I "have" to buy a new car, or pay way way way too much for the i3. My owners choice is expiring, and my balloon payment is about $7k higher than market.

 

[Silence]

Ditto. I won't keep the i3 more than a year beyond the expiration the CPO warranty. Also for me the i3 is a stop gap measure. What I really want is a small to midsize AWD SUV with an electric range of over 200 miles. The only option right now is the Model X which is too large and too expensive. In three years Ford & Hyundai (and likely others) will have released plug in SUVs and the Model Y may be announced by then.

 

[johnnylingo]

In three years Ford & Hyundai (and likely others) will have released plug in SUVs and the Model Y may be announced by then.

Also VW could have their 300 range vehicle out. This should give the Bolt and Model3 another serious competitor, but IMO autonomous driving features will impact resale values more than anything related to EV range. 2020 and beyond will be interesting times for sure.

However, I'm more optimistic than others. A nice 2014 i3 REx with low miles is $27k now. I believe that in 3 years it will still be worth $15k as the style and functionality still should drive interest. So that's easy math: $4k/year or $333/month. Not bad compared to the depreciation 2014-2017, but still...leasing a 2017 might make more sense when state rebates get factored in.

 

[Silence]

In three years Ford & Hyundai (and likely others) will have released plug in SUVs and the Model Y may be announced by then.

<span>Also VW could have their 300 range vehicle out. This should give the<a href="http://www.mychevybolt.com/forum" class="interlinkr" target="_blank"> Bolt <span class="tip">Visit the Chevy Bolt EV</span></a>and Model3 another serious competitor, but IMO autonomous driving features will impact resale values more than anything related to EV range. 2020 and beyond will be interesting times for sure. </span>

However, I'm more optimistic than others. A nice 2014 i3 REx with low miles is $27k now. I believe that in 3 years it will still be worth $15k as the style and functionality still should drive interest. So that's easy math: $4k/year or $333/month. Not bad compared to the depreciation 2014-2017, but still...leasing a 2017 might make more sense when state rebates get factored in.

Also VW could have their 300 range vehicle out. This should give the Bolt and Model3 another serious competitor, but IMO autonomous driving features will impact resale values more than anything related to EV range. 2020 and beyond will be interesting times for sure.

I forgot about the VW I.D.! With that hatch, it is more appealing to me than the Model 3. I really like their microbus concept. Bigger than I need, but if they ever end up releasing something similar to the concept I'll be tempted. I ran some rough numbers and it looks like leasing will cost me about 5K more over three years than buying a 2014 (depending on how much the 2014 is worth at the end). The upside to leasing though would be the extended range. A 2017 would make my 50 mile round-trip commute without any problems in the winter. That winter commute could be a challenge for the 2014 and I may have to dip in to the Rex some days.

 

[johnnylingo]

My dilemma is similar - I want an EV that can get me to San Francisco and back (160 miles) stopping only once. The REx will do that, but then again so will a 2017 BEV. So the battery bump was a game-changer from my perspective since it makes the BEV a realistic option.

Another factor for Californians: the HOV sticker program. It will expire at the end of 2018 and it would not surprise me if only the white (pure EV / natural gas / fuel cell) gets extended. If that occurs, the RExs will take a value hit since they won't be HOV eligible while the BEVs should do OK even with limited range. Combined with anxiety over maintenance costs of an gas-burning engine, I can't help but feel a 2017 BEV is the safer bet.

 

[engineear]

My lease on a 2015 loaded Rex is up in 12-2018. The finance guy told me..."when this is up DO NOT buy it." I've had zero issues so far in 7 months and 7000 miles. As others have said, waiting to see what's available 2 years from now. Until then, love driving this car!

 

[Schnort]

A nice 2014 i3 REx with low miles is $27k now.

You should see what's on truecar.com

There are 211 i3s (of all sorts and ages) that are less than $27K. There's 64 less than $22k.

And we're barely into the 2014 lease expiration season.

 

[johnnylingo]

There are 211 i3s (of all sorts and ages) that are less than $27K. There's 64 less than $22k.

Well yeah, the 2014 BEVs with Mega trim are upper teens now. Personally, I'm in the market for a REx with Giga/Tech/Parking/HK speakers and see them in the coming in at high 20s but assume haggling down to mid 20s is possible. That's down ~$5k from early 2016 when I started looking.

In theory the deprecation rate should ease as time goes on, however I think with EVs we'll continue to see a linear rate. The 2014s are really starting to flood the used market now as they're taken, they'll be replaced with 2015s and then 2016s.

 

[jadnashuanh]

I've seen more than one poster that originally bought a REx, and is replacing it with a BEV because they no longer have range anxiety. Some of that may be the new cars have a larger battery, but I think a lot of it is that people realize after living with it for a couple of years, they did not need that crutch. Certainly, there are people who use their REx on a regular basis, and it does have its place, but once you really understand what your needs are, and how an EV works, many people can live with the original i3 with its range limitations. It's hard to say what effect that will have on the value. Personally, I plan to keep mine for awhile, and my BEV has done what I wanted/needed. I do have a second car that mostly sits in the garage on a trickle charger, but no current EV (even the Tesla) would work well for when I do need my other car. That's a luxury not all can afford. IMHO, the i3 was never intended or designed for long trips, and using it that way is more of a pain than I'm willing to put up with. There's probably easily more than a million gas pumps in the USA in almost every little place verses maybe 100K public charging stations, and nearly none in the middle of nowhere, not counting the wait time to recharge, especially if someone got there ahead of you! EV's have their place. They won't work for everyone, everywhere. I love mine for what it does. As time passes, more and more people will be exposed to them, and if they learn what they really need, even a low-range EV may meet all of their needs, and that will keep the price up. There are lots of people that won't even look at something like the i3 because of its maximum range. That will change...larger batteries will enable more people to gain familiarity with an EV, because it will overcome their range anxiety, but if things follow the trends, once they understand it, they'll be more accepting of smaller, lighter, more agile ones if they can meet the real needs. More batteries becomes a self-defeating proposition...more weight, less range, at some point, adding more batteries (at least in the type we can find today), you reach a point where your range does not go up any more!...the curves intersect. The weight and performance get ugly, not counting the size and the wear and tear on components (springs/shocks/tires/etc.).

 

[spinball]

I have a 2014 REx and am going to have to decide what to do this June. I would not even consider a used i3 unless it was CPO simply because the out of warranty costs on this car can be quite severe. It's a very unusual car not just for BMW but for the entire car industry. While it might not be common, there have been cases where essentially the entire powertrain and battery have been replaced in warranty to the tune of 5-figures. I wouldn't want to be stuck with that bill!

Thankfully I have not had any major issues over 15k but I still don't want to take on that risk when it would be me left paying the service bill instead of BMW. You have to include that potential cost when comparing vs a new car.

 

[Schnort]

So I ended up with (I think) a 2016 Kia Soul EV+ lease for $266/mo all in (tax, title, license, downpayment, etc). That's about as good as I could find in Texas (where tax on the entire price of the car is paid upfront).

It'll be sad to move away from the i3, which is really a fun driver, to something considerably less able, but I only commute with it so it really was about finding the cheapest mode of transport.

This is, of course, assuming the Kia isn't a lemon. It has to have its battery replaced before I take delivery, and it has less than 50 miles on it.

 

[johnnylingo]

Interesting, you're the first shopper I've known to have gone with the Soul. The deal you got is pretty good, last year I was quoted over $300/mo for the EV+. The 2018s will get a range boost and I'm sure they're eager to clear out the 2016s right now.

 

[Schnort]

It was all about price, though I fear it might have come back to bite me. I'm having some irritating high pitched audio tones present in the car over 45Mph or so. They're fixed frequency(6.5KHz and 11Khz) , so it's not directly engine induced, or at least I assume not since the frequency doesn't vary. It does vary in volume due to load...sort of. I'm having a hard time finding the correleation, and I can only imagine the Kia service guys are going to hate me, but I can't imagine driving a car for 3 years that comes with built in tinnitus.

FWIW, the i3 is a much nicer, sportier drive, while the Kia seems to be a more pleasant ride with more features (though I'm comparing the top end Kia Soul with the lowest i3, even though the kia is ~20k cheaper MSRP). The Kia can't do one foot driving though, and that makes me sad.