Electric Cars Value Tumble (WSJ)

[cove3]

>>>e-thing/ 5th paragraph, "...a battery with twice the storage capacity of BMW’s current plug-in hybrids (while maintaining the same physical size)>>>

That's a throwaway. There's nothing in the literature to support 2x in actual production cars before 2018 or even later. The 200 mile cars are all talk and no facts and most certainly would achieve a good part of the 200 miles with simply a bigger battery

Ron

 

[mjk]

Just as a point of reference, my 2013 Leaf goes off lease in May and I've already been offered a $5K discount from the $21K residual prive by Nissan Finance. someone will get a great deal on a 2-year old mid-line Leaf with only 10K miles.

 

[imolazhp]

If the current vehicle meets your commuting needs, do you really care if the new one has so much more capacity? To recharge it would either take twice as long, or, you'd be paying to have a bigger on-board charging circuit and a major upgrade to your EVSE (and many houses won't support that without major costs)...doubling it will mean more weight and costs. I looked at the i3 as a product that will have an extended service life - very little actually wears out, and it's not like the body is going to rust away, or you get a hole in the quarter panels. Unless you're one that always has to have the latest and greatest, I do not see any major safety improvements coming, so I plan to keep mine for longer than my normal purchases. When it gets old enough to consider a battery replacement, I'm sure that there will be options, and there will always be some turn-in value of the existing battery pack. Then, it will be a decision to either buy a whole new vehicle, or upgrade the existing one and, when you keep them long enough, the resale value tends to level off.

There's lots more that can go wrong on an ICE and maybe more reason to consider replacing them more frequently.

Excellent point(s) about recharging time of a battery with double capacity. I'm not sure about more weight, but it seems likely as well. I live 2.2 miles from work, so round trip is 5 miles per day. But this is a blessing and a curse, in the past two years I've only put 5k on my paid off e46 330i ZHP. Even if it only averaged 18mpg and even if premium (93 octane) was $3.50/gal, my annual fuel cost is less than $1000. Its difficult to justify spending $55,000 to save $1000 per year. But this e46 isn't going to last forever and I do have other maintenance costs (oil/filter, other things that break) to factor in as well. I guess part of me wants to move to electric because it seems like the right thing to do. I just don't know.

>>>e-thing/ 5th paragraph, "...a battery with twice the storage capacity of BMW’s current plug-in hybrids (while maintaining the same physical size)>>>

That's a throwaway. There's nothing in the literature to support 2x in actual production cars before 2018 or even later. The 200 mile cars are all talk and no facts and most certainly would achieve a good part of the 200 miles with simply a bigger battery

Ron

What exactly is a "throwaway"? The concept car, yes, once they are done with it, it will most likely be crushed. That doesn't mean the battery pack used inside of it isn't being tested for use in other BMW vehicles including the i3. Where is there literature talking about what will and will not occur up until 2018? In my experience, car companies don't really like to tell consumers what they are or are not planning to do in advance. Perhaps 200 mile cars are all talk and no fact, I'm not sure. I thought I read somewhere that Ghosn said they had a 200 mile battery pack ready to go as well for either an updated Leaf or a new one, I don't remember exactly. Bigger battery equals more weight to carry around, not sure if a bigger battery is the way to go, but a battery with more capacity might have more weight as well.

-----

I guess only time will tell, but thanks to you both for responding to my question. I guess in my current situation I don't even need 200 mile range, and that is most likely the case for current electric owners and will probably be the case for future electric owners. I don't foresee us getting rid of our paid off 2007 CRV anytime soon and we already don't take the e46 out of town because it is too modified to be comfortable on out of town trips, so I think even an i3 without REx would possibly work.

 

[jadnashuanh]

Energy density will keep getting better as will tweaking the recipe. How fast this progresses, is still a somewhat open question. What can be accomplished in the lab may not pan out when trying to mass produce something, and then, you have to test them for reliability, and while you can simulate some of that, it takes some real-world testing. Last thing you'd probably want is a new battery that only lasted for a year or two. Not good for the consumer OR the manufacturer.

FWIW, at least in my case, living in a condominium, with the way things are wired, there's no way I could put in a larger EVSE. The average household may also have issues trying to install something that could recharge a huge capacity battery in anything like a timely fashion. Until something like Tesla's superchargers are on every street corner where you'd be assured of being able to find an open space and one working, bigger battery packs mean longer charge times for bigger batteries.

Just like in a home wiring situation, the bigger the draw, the bigger the gauge of wire you need. ANd, when it comes to the charging circuit...the guts must be heavier duty to handle the current. There are two ways to conventionally do that: put things in parallel and use the same things, but more of them, or beef up the one you have to handle it. And, more current means more heat since the conversion is never perfect, which means a bigger radiator for the cooling circuits and a bigger compressor, and bigger hoses, etc...which means a heavier car, which means your benefit for more stored power gets diminished because you're dragging around more weight. Look at a Tesla - their biggest battery pack - 85Kw, nearly 4x the i3's current pack. Barely 3x the range.

 

[nowtta60]

Resale is only of interest if you plan to sell. I'm expecting to get about 2 to 3k for mine. IF i don't give it to my son who will be 17 in 8 years time.

 

[imolazhp]

Energy density will keep getting better as will tweaking the recipe. How fast this progresses, is still a somewhat open question. What can be accomplished in the lab may not pan out when trying to mass produce something, and then, you have to test them for reliability, and while you can simulate some of that, it takes some real-world testing. Last thing you'd probably want is a new battery that only lasted for a year or two. Not good for the consumer OR the manufacturer.

FWIW, at least in my case, living in a condominium, with the way things are wired, there's no way I could put in a larger EVSE. The average household may also have issues trying to install something that could recharge a huge capacity battery in anything like a timely fashion. Until something like Tesla's superchargers are on every street corner where you'd be assured of being able to find an open space and one working, bigger battery packs mean longer charge times for bigger batteries.

Just like in a home wiring situation, the bigger the draw, the bigger the gauge of wire you need. ANd, when it comes to the charging circuit...the guts must be heavier duty to handle the current. There are two ways to conventionally do that: put things in parallel and use the same things, but more of them, or beef up the one you have to handle it. And, more current means more heat since the conversion is never perfect, which means a bigger radiator for the cooling circuits and a bigger compressor, and bigger hoses, etc...which means a heavier car, which means your benefit for more stored power gets diminished because you're dragging around more weight. Look at a Tesla - their biggest battery pack - 85Kw, nearly 4x the i3's current pack. Barely 3x the range.

Thank you for taking the time to explain these details and express these thoughts. I've still got a lot to learn.

Resale is only of interest if you plan to sell. I'm expecting to get about 2 to 3k for mine. IF i don't give it to my son who will be 17 in 8 years time.

Another excellent point, after nearly 9 years of ownership, I'm just now starting to get ready to sell my 2003 330i ZHP. If I end up with an i3, I will probably have it that long as well.

 

[jadnashuanh]

In my case, I typically only drive my i3 about 20-miles max. The battery will have to degrade a lot before it becomes unusable. With the plastic body panels, aluminum and carbon fiber, it should not degrade a lot in any reasonable time. So, while you may want to refresh something, and new is always nice, there really isn't a good reason to have to replace an i3 in any short term...IOW, it should last and be reliable until you wish to get rid of it - a long time, much longer than a typical ICE. I have an electric fan that I bought in the 1960's that still works fine and gets used a fair amount. Electric motors last a very long time.

 

[Schnort]

Just as a point of reference, my 2013 Leaf goes off lease in May and I've already been offered a $5K discount from the $21K residual prive by Nissan Finance. someone will get a great deal on a 2-year old mid-line Leaf with only 10K miles.

That brings up a similar question in my mind.

I'm doing the owner's choice thing, and they guarantee a buy back at a given residual.

What if the market HAS tanked, and it is only street worth half the residual.

I assume they're required to take the car off of me at the agreed residual.

But would they do the opposite and offer to refinance the balloon payment at a steep discount (i.e. market rate) to avoid taking control of a car that is going to be a instant loss anyways?

 

[jadnashuanh]

PRedicting what a company might do in the future is just a WAG...the only thing that is certain is the contract you sign. It doesn't hurt to ask, and the worst thing that will happen is that they honor the contract that you both agreed to. Unless it is in writing, who knows...

 

[imolazhp]

That brings up a similar question in my mind.

I'm doing the owner's choice thing, and they guarantee a buy back at a given residual.

What if the market HAS tanked, and it is only street worth half the residual.

I assume they're required to take the car off of me at the agreed residual.

But would they do the opposite and offer to refinance the balloon payment at a steep discount (i.e. market rate) to avoid taking control of a car that is going to be a instant loss anyways?

Short answer, yes. At the end of OC, you can walk away, just like a lease. If you want to purchase the car, you have the ability to negotiate a lower price, also just like a lease.

Disclaimer: I don't know everything, but this is what I've read previously.

 

[PluviaPlumbum]

Resale is only of interest if you plan to sell. I'm expecting to get about 2 to 3k for mine. IF i don't give it to my son who will be 17 in 8 years time.

I have a similar Plan, but I doubt your young chap ( or you ) would relish a group 21 Insurance bill at age 17 It's likely to be far more than the car is going to be worth. Looked at buying my lad a VW eUP but even that is group 10, so ended up with the ICE version and an affordable Insurance bill.

 

[user 1096]

Unfortunately, the news sections of the WSJ have been infected by the opinion pages that are wholly in the bag for the CO2 industry. Case in point: "...some worry the expensive batteries could have to be replaced" on two-year old Leafs — beware the anonymous "some", which is usually a doppelgänger for the journalist's (or her editor's) marching orders. Look, even Leafers know how long their batteries really last, so the WSJ (aka Rupert Murdoch of Fox News infamy) is merely propagandizing; I challenge Christina Rogers to open her journalist's notebook and produce a real quote from a real Leaf owner to substantiate that allegation.
I bought my beloved Honda Insight in the year 2000 and said at the time that I hoped it would become obselete in 5 years, and was very disappointed when it became more like 14 years for the i3 to come out. Now I decided to lease an i3 (rather than own) precisely because I expect that the technology/price/value of BEVs to improve so rapidly that when my lease expires the resale value of my i3 will have plummeted such that it will be BMW's problem, not mine. This is a feature, not a bug, of BEVs and all rapidly evolving technology — after all, who is bemoaning that their 3-year old iPhone has plummeted in value?

That's not the correct response to that "some worry"...at least from an i3 owner.

The proper response is that all other makes must replace the entire battery bank when a cell is bad. The i3 is designed so that each individual cell may be pulled and replaced independent of the state of capacity of the remaining units; and it's a much cheaper proposition. OTOH if you just want to broadbrush diss the WSJ like a typical lefty, that's your prerogative, but you are showing your unfamiliarity with the publication.

 

[janner]

Try http://www.whatcar.com/car-depreciation-calculator/results?edition1=44091&edition2=44180&edition3=43834&makeId=6805&modelVersionId=30966&editionId=38371

to see just how good BMW i3 residuals are in the UK. If you check out Autotrader you'll see how real te what car analysis is.

 

[i3marc]

Cheap gas?

I just saw 4.75 in San Diego last night... and 4.99 for premium. This was on the coast.

 

[WoodlandHills]

The LA Times ran two stories on this in the same issue this week. One was a test of the new Prius focusing on how it was expected to bail out declining hybrid and plug-in sales due to low fuel prices. The other was about how fuel prices had jumped 12 cents a gallon in one day and how some stations were selling it for over $4 a gallon. The stories were side by side on the same page...... :roll:

 

[cove3]

<<<all other makes must replace the entire battery bank when a cell is bad.>>>

I believe the vw egolf can replace a single cell, as well. As regards residual values, the auto companies have an army of mbas tryng to make sure they don't lose. It's like trying to outsmart wall street or Las Vegas

Ron

 

[Boatguy]

The WSJ is now just another mouthpiece for Rupert Murdoch (Fox News, etc.). Any relationship to good journalism is purely accidental.

Let's put this subject to bed.

Charging at night, I pay $.10 / kWh. 19 kWh, or $1.90, delivers 80 miles of driving.

When an ICE gets 80mpg and gas is $1.90/gal, the economics get closer to similar.

My Mercedes E350 Bluetech (diesel) costs $.22/mi for maintenance (tires, service, oil, etc. etc.) and about $.10/mi for fuel, that's $.32/mi before depreciation / purchase cost.

The economics favor the electrics and no amount of oil industry disinformation can change the numbers. The benefit to our mutually shared environment is all icing on the cake.