BMW i talks about larger EV, increased i3 range in 2016

[psquare]

i5 could become a reality sooner than previously thought. Also, sounds like i3 is to get a range boost in 2016, if this is to be believed. Below is the translation of the German "Automobil Produktion" post.

I will post about the mentioned article in "Die Zeit" once I got it.

translation: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.automobil-produktion.de%2F2015%2F10%2Fbmw-will-groesseres-elektroauto-auf-den-markt-bringen%2F&edit-text=

Original in German: http://www.automobil-produktion.de/2015/10/bmw-will-groesseres-elektroauto-auf-den-markt-bringen/

 

[psquare]

Update: I just read the mentioned article in "Die Zeit" (not available to non-subscribers at the moment) and here is an excerpt about the increased range in German, translation below.

Krüger: Die Batteriezelltechnologie entwickelt sich weiter. Eine Erhöhung der Reichweite beim i3 wird schon im Jahr 2016 kommen. Ein weite­rer Technologiesprung kommt sicherlich schon in drei, vier Jahren. Dann kommen Sie pro Ladung schon bald doppelt so weit, ohne dass sich das Gewicht der Batterie weiter erhöht.

ZEIT: Kann ich dann die Batterie meines i3 gegen den besseren Akku austauschen?

Krüger: Mit dieser Frage beschäftigen wir uns gerade.

Krüger: The battery cell technology is evolving. An increase in range of the i3 will come in the 2016. A bigger technological leap is likely to happen in the next three or four years. You can then travel almost twice the distance without a further increase in battery weight.

ZEIT: Can I then replace the battery of my i3 against the better battery?

Krueger: We are currently dealing with this question.

 

[justanotherdrunk]

interesting thanks

 

[WoodlandHills]

And this is why one does not buy an EV......

 

[psquare]

And this is why one does not buy an EV......

And instead giving away £5000 to the leasing company, who would have taken the UK government subsidy? I don't think so.

I did the figures and buying the i3 as a company car instead of leasing it was the better option over 3 years. I got my accountant to double-check it and he confirmed it was wiser to purchase than lease.

Everyone's mileage varies.

 

[jadnashuanh]

And this is why one does not buy an EV......

I've owned a personal computer since the early 1980's...the same thought applied then with those...if you just wait a little bit, the new one will be better, faster, cheaper.

If it meets your current needs, buy it and don't look back. If it doesn't meet your needs, don't buy it and don't complain about it, either. It's a fact of life on evolving technology. My first hard drive was 5M and cost me over $500. I didn't complain about it then and I knew that the new ones would be bigger and cheaper, but it meet my needs. My i3 meets my needs. Would it be nice to have bigger range with no increase in price? Yes, but it wouldn't really change how I use my i3. That may not be true for others. At this point, I do not look on the i3 as an all-around ICE replacement. Even with the REx, the size and convenience just isn't there for me for long trips that I take periodically. Eventually, if the CCS situation significantly improves AND the range is significantly greater, maybe, or a hybrid with bigger all-electric, but until then, the right tool for the job, and that's rarely one pair of pliers in your toolbox. With my ICE, an unexpectedly closed gas station would rarely disrupt my trip...a missing EVSE or CCS station could, radically. In most places...the recharging infrastructure just is not fully viable for all EV use except local in the USA. I can find a gas station nearly anywhere.

 

[WoodlandHills]

If I could have leased my 286,386,486 and all the little Pentiums I certainly would have. At the very minimum I would not have been stuck with obsolete equipment to dispose of and I probably would have spent the same or less. At least I am not forced into the same situation with EVs.

Here in CA I got a pretty decent chunk of the Federal incentive as a lessee: company cars are practically unheard of here......

Of course the i3 is getting a bigger battery, how else will they market i3's in a world of 200 mile Bolts? The surprise is that it is coming so quickly, I hope that does not mean a 5% or 10% increase when they are going to need to get the range up above 150 miles. Simply saying that the i3 is a "Mega City" car as an excuse for short range is not going to cut it with consumers when a cheaper Chevy gets 200 miles.

 

[busaman]

i agree 200 miles is the benchmark to aim for..

 

[janner]

In this interim upgrade for the i3 it seems to me that 30% range increase would be most likely giving something like 105 miles (90-120).

 

[psquare]

BMW Blog has an a post on this now, too.
http://www.bmwblog.com/2015/10/22/bmw-i3-range-will-be-increased-in-2016-with-a-new-battery/

With regards to range increase, I think we will be talking about an improvement in the region of 10-20%, not more. It will provide more than enough to keep pace with the next Leaf and Bolt (for which we so far only have manufacturer's range promises), but nothing beyond that.

In terms of retrofits (and if these will be offered - a BIG if), the next big question is how much BMW will give you as a trade-in. In general, dealerships will be keen to once again get customers on the phone and through the door, reengage with them. BMW on the other side may decide to simply offer the extended battery as a new model or an extra. My guess is that the latter is more likely.

Unless the potential range increase is significantly higher than 10-20%, most REx drivers will pass on a potential battery upgrade, as they parted with more money and already get decent mileage if needed, albeit burning fossil fuel. In my mind, the main target market for a battery retrofit are the BEVs, which may be able to get a boost to a 120 mi real-world range.

If however this new i3 2016 evolution includes more fixes and updates than merely the battery, then an interesting upgrade cycle might emerge, as many lease deals will end by late 2016.

One problem that Krueger might have created for himself now is that i3 sales may be hampered or damaged for 9-12 months, as people will either wait for the next model and go elsewhere. An announcement in January of Feb 2016 may have proved wiser. Dealers (particularly in the US, where stocks appear to be high) will have to adjust prices. This could end up as a i3-deal bonanza, who knows?

 

[WoodlandHills]

In this interim upgrade for the i3 it seems to me that 30% range increase would be most likely giving something like 105 miles (90-120).

I sure would not want to try to sell a 105 mile $45k+ i3 in a world of $30k to $35k Teslas and Chevys with 175 to 200 mile ranges.

 

[psquare]

I sure would not want to try to sell a 105 mile $45k+ i3 in a world of $30k to $35k Teslas and Chevys with 175 to 200 mile ranges.

Don't worry, nobody is interested in living in your world either. :lol:

 

[jadnashuanh]

Whether Tesla can pull it off is yet to be seen. The model X was supposed to cost much less than its current out the door price. Nobody 'needs' to spend the money for a 'luxury' car, but many do, partly for the status, partly for the technology, and for many other reasons. If all you want to do is get from point A to point B...there are lots of other reliable cars out there. There will always be a market for a 'luxury' version of things. The build technique of the i3 is such that, a recognized engineering firm that tore one down to analyze, concluded that making more than 50K/year of them would be uneconomical. IOW, BMW never planned to build huge quantities of them. The technique they used on the new 7-series, though, via the larger expected volume, justified the expenditure of a different technique. I think the next I-car from BMW will anticipate larger volumes, since a larger car with anticipated longer range and more carrying capacity will not follow the exact same CFRP tub technique, but still be lighter than normal cars of its size for efficiency. FWIW, I'm not a fan of Tesla's huge quantities of small batteries in their pack...lots of opportunities for failure. Balancing them all is tough. How well they'll perform after say 8-years will maybe be a shock to those that then need to replace them to maintain decent range. But, then, people that tend to have a car like that don't keep it that long, but the secondary market will suffer.

Lots of doom and gloom from some people. I do not see BMW folding as a company or from their commitment to making good EV's and hybrids. If what they provide suits your needs and your pocketbook, you'll buy it, but a lone voice is not a chorus, and that's what matters in the long run.

 

[janner]

Munro said, on their teardown, that they would expect BMW to make money on more than 20,000 units.

 

[Jeffj]

I interpreted the teardown comments on cost as indicating the methodology BMW chose works well up to ~50,000 units, but above that, it gets too expensive. In other words, they chose low startup costs (e.g. no major tooling), but high incremental manufacturing costs. Above 50,000 units, they would want to invest in the tooling to reduce the manufacturing costs on a per unit basis (high startup costs, but low incremental manufacturing costs).

 

[jadnashuanh]

As I said...BMW did not expect to sell more than 50K units/year of the i3. If they had, they'd have built it differently. I expect something larger, designed for long-range capability, world-wide could require a greater volume, and therefore a different build methodology. It works and does what they expected. I would hope that the next, larger, longer-range EV they build will also work and perform as they expect. If their expectation is a lower volume, then maybe the basic structure of the next one will be similar to the i3's, but my guess is that it will be more in line with that used on the 7-series.

Higher power density batteries could mean fewer of them to save weight which would increase range just from that, verses adding range by keeping the same volume. IOW, they could keep the battery pack capacity the same on the next i3, and gain that range just from weight loss. Keeping the volume the same could add more range, though, and could be the plan.

 

[websterize]

Hopefully, we'll learn more on Thursday, when the Tokyo Motor Show begins.

 

[janner]

Posted on BMWi3.blogspot.co.uk

BMW CEO Harold Krueger in an interview with Die Zeit recently said this about the topic:

“Battery cell technology continues to evolve. The range of the i3 will be increased in 2016. A further technological improvement is to be expected in three or four years: Then you’ll be able to go twice as far on a single charge without any further increase in the weight of the battery."

Alongside this was a Samsung technology roadmap showing an advanced LI Battery in 2016 but with the same 130Wh/kg as existing. Also shown for 2019 was 'Innovative LIB' at 250Wh/kg which if all else was equal would mean about 155 miles for BEV (or 138 miles electric for ReX and, one assumes, a bigger tank fuel tank, meaning 276miles total).

For me the 2019 battery looks near perfect.

 

[jadnashuanh]

An interesting aside to that, if they do not increase the capacity of the on-board charging circuits, that also means nearly double the charging time on an EVSE. Increased capacity there, more heat generated, bigger cooling system, etc., which means it may not be bigger, which would add weight (not from the batteries, but the support equipment if the charging circuits got bigger). CCS charging would still be reasonably fast, but still longer. Very few things in life are free. Most EVSE's out there are barely able to max out the i3 now, and larger ones are not likely to become really common. CCS units, the same thing, few out there have excess capacity - IOW, the i3 now is using them to their fullest capacity for the most part.

 

[janner]

Some good points, Jim.

It's quite interesting what the BMW R&D guy said last weekend - he said that the i3 battery size was what it was because that's what you could charge overnight at 10 amps.

I guess, by next year, or certainly by 2019, most will have level 2 chargers which means home charging of 36kWHrs will be OK overnight.

As far as CCS goes (50kW), my current charge rate is a little less than 1 kWHr/min for the first 70% (15 minutes) and a little less than 0.5kWHr/min for the next 20% (8 minutes). I would expect the larger battery to achieve the first 70% (24kWHrs) in just less than 30 mins but the next 20% (7kWHrs) to be around 10 minutes only so 90% in 40 minutes rather than 90% in 23 minutes. As you said, it's about twice the charge time; it's limited by 50kW DC.

(Tesla supercharger (120kW) achieves the first 50% (40kWHrs) in about 30 minutes - 1.3kWHr/min.)