20 months to a 200mi range i3

[WoodlandHills]

It looks like GM will be selling the 200mile range Bolt EV in 2016, about 20 months from now. Can BMW compete with a 100mile range i3 for thousands of dollars more? I doubt it and that's why I am sure BMW will respond: they will have no choice. If they want to stay in the EV business they have to up their game, a "100mi" i3 that only goes 50mi in the winter will be completely obsolete in 2 years......
It is sink or swim time for the iDivision now, the new minimum acceptable range is shortly going to be 200 miles and not 100 as it is today. When the first Bolt gets delivered at anything close to the target price any EV with a less than 200 range will plummet in desirability not only on the showroom floor, but especially in the used car market. My commiserations to those who bought instead of leasing......

 

[Schnort]

I bought with owners choice, so it's ok

 

[I33t]

Well, if you actually need 200 mile range, sure.

Seems there are thousands of people getting by just fine with the existing i3. If they all needed 200 mile EV range they wouldn't have even looked at it.

 

[WoodlandHills]

We are early adapters, we will buy anything.....

Seriously, the most common question I get is about the range. Nearly everyone's response is that a Tesla will go 200 miles. They don't know anything about EVs, but they know about the 200 mile Tesla. In a few months Joe Sixpack is going to start hearing about the 200 mile Bolt, and every other EV maker is going to jump on the 200 mile bandwagon not to be left behind. It has nothing to do with people's actual range need, but is entirely psychological and no less important for being so. With 200 miles there will be essentially no range anxiety and that will be the publics expectation. No need to dwell upon the fate of companies and products that fail to meet expectations.......

 

[jadnashuanh]

FWIW, BMW has said it has better batteries in the works...it's a matter of time and working out the kinks (and market). I have no issues with the i3's current range. It's somewhat unlikely that it will end up with a significantly larger onboard charging system, so the time to recharge will go way up unless CCS units become more readily available. The current plans to put some out there isn't enough, but is a starting point. WHen you can be assured of them working, and one being available when you drive up like a gas pump, THEN they'll be useful. Until then, they can be a trip interruption, or disaster.

 

[I33t]

We are early adapters, we will buy anything.....

Seriously, the most common question I get is about the range. Nearly everyone's response is that a Tesla will go 200 miles. They don't know anything about EVs, but they know about the 200 mile Tesla. In a few months Joe Sixpack is going to start hearing about the 200 mile Bolt, and every other EV maker is going to jump on the 200 mile bandwagon not to be left behind. It has nothing to do with people's actual range need, but is entirely psychological and no less important for being so. With 200 miles there will be essentially no range anxiety and that will be the publics expectation. No need to dwell upon the fate of companies and products that fail to meet expectations.......

Yes, it IS marketing. That's the reason people in the suburbs get conned into buying high powered and/or oversized vehicles to go do the shopping or drive to work in traffic with only the driver on board. They are being played, and I think it's only a matter of time before they get played in the other direction.

If your daily commute is 30 miles, why on earth would you want a 200 mile Tesla? If Tesla brought out a 1000 mile Tesla would that help? No, it would only help the very small proportion of the motoring public who actually routinely need long range. For everyone else, it would just impact the vehicles efficiency. Tesla is already the least efficient EV on the market.

 

[WoodlandHills]

And none of that matters. People buy cars with their hearts and not their heads, if they think they need 200 miles than they DO need 200 miles. You have to sell what they want irregardless of what some expert says they need. Why do you think there is a M-division? Nobody needs a single one of their products, any other BMW will do the same job of moving people, but there sure are a lot of people who want one. 200 mile range is going to become the litmus test for EVs as far as the general public is concerned and that perception is going to drive future designs.

 

[I33t]

And none of that matters.

Matters to me, or I wouldn't have mentioned it.

 

[WoodlandHills]

But we aren't talking about you and me, are we? We are talking about folks who take a wait and see attitude about tech. Who are NOT early adapters, those who would never buy any new product in the first year or two of production, the ones whose first smartphone was an iPhone 5. Those who still own a VCR or who watch DVDs as opposed to streaming video. The folks who EV sellers will be marketing to in the next 2 to 3 years if they ever intend their EV to be more than a niche vehicle like a smart. Those are the ones who will never do the research, never take the time to learn the ins and outs of EVs and who will rely on "advice" from their friends or (God forbid) the salesman. To them, an easy round number like 200 miles (like a Tesla!) is what will stick in their minds....

 

[Boatguy]

I can't believe there is a thread driven by a marketing release and concept car from GM. GM's record, pre and post bankruptcy is horrendous. GM has no track record of producing a pure electric car in any volume, and a very poor record of producing reliable / safe cars at all. GM has zero proprietary technology to put into the Bolt and has never produced the kind of software that will be necessary and expected of an electric car in 2017 when they will still be purchased by "early adopters" while the rest of the country is buying Ford F-150's and Chevy Suburbans.

GM and Ford are both still ruled by people building cars for the 1980's and still rely on selling pickups and SUVs to stay afloat, though Ford is much stronger than GM. In the last 4 reported quarters GM's profit was just $2.5B on revenue of $153B, or 1.6% and lost money on operations in 2 out of those quarters. It's entirely likely that GM will go bankrupt again in the next financial downturn (i.e., next 5yrs).

BMW's "i" competition will be Tesla, Lexus, Infiniti, and maybe Mercedes, but not GM.

 

[Schnort]

That may be, but those cars have to be specced better than the GM and Toyota equivalents to demand the luxury premium.

Regardless, if there's a 100% jump in range expectations in the next few years, the current crop of EVs will have difficulty maintaining resale value.

 

[cove3]

The resale value, apart from normal decline during the 3 years before we see these 200 mile cars, is going to be determined by whether the 35000 price promises can be achieved. A number of articles I've read have concluded they can't, despite what Tesla, BMW, and GM say, because significant new battery technology and significant cost reductions are not on the horizon.

Ron

 

[WoodlandHills]

BMW may want to compete with Tesla, Lexus, etc but the public are just as likely to look at a 200 mile Bolt and wonder why the BMW costs $10k more and only has 1/2 the range.....

Even if GM fails to make their price point, having a car with twice the range for a bit less money than an i3 BEV will be a serious competitor. For a BMW, the i3 is not very luxurious what with the thin manual seats and the raw plastic-look interior trim, a decent spec GM vehicle with a Buick-style "luxury" interior for a bit less money and twice the range would be a home run. Oct 2016 is not that far off, so we will be able to see if any of the other EV makers are taking them seriously. If they are, expect to start seeing announcements of new longer range models of existing EVs as the Bolt release date approaches.......And if that happens a 100mile used i3 will plummet in value, especially one without DCFC.

What effect would dramatically lower resale values have on the cost of new leases? Would BMW just fudge the residuals to move product and how would that affect the profitability of the whole iDivision gamble? This could be a very interesting couple of years for all the EV makers and not just BMW.

 

[I33t]

I think you're getting a little ahead of yourself here. The Bolt isn't even on the market yet, and until it is this is all supposition.

Why would a German made, designed from scratch, electric vehicle using advanced construction and materials have a premium price over a GM produced product?

Having had several GM produced vehicles and several German produced vehicles including the i3 I can see why. I have no problem with people preferring a GM product for it's particular design and functionality, but GM would have to lift their game before another GM product sits in my driveway.

 

[WoodlandHills]

I think you're getting a little ahead of yourself here. The Bolt isn't even on the market yet, and until it is this is all supposition.

Why would a German made, designed from scratch, electric vehicle using advanced construction and materials have a premium price over a GM produced product?

Having had several GM produced vehicles and several German produced vehicles including the i3 I can see why. I have no problem with people preferring a GM product for it's particular design and functionality, but GM would have to lift their game before another GM product sits in my driveway.

I don't want a GM car either (Corvette excepted), but millions of other Americans do and they buy thousands of them every month. There's no reason to think they would not do the same with an EV with a 200 mile range at a reasonable cost.

 

[alohart]

I expect the 200-mile Bolt to be like the 100-mile i3: that's the range under ideal conditions. I will be pleasantly surprised if the Bolt's EPA range exceeds 160 miles. I will also be pleasantly surprised if the Bolt weighs less than 3,500 pounds (i.e., far too heavy for me).

I bought our i3 for its light weight, rust-free body, compact exterior, efficient packaging resulting in a relatively spacious interior, and sufficient range. I replaced our previous EV because we moved to an extreme end of our island making the range of our previous EV insufficient to drive round-trip to the far side of the island without stopping to charge for an hour at an increasingly unavailable public charging station. We can't move any farther away, so if our i3 doesn't become unreliable and its battery pack doesn't degrade significantly, I can't see any reason to replace it.

 

[cove3]

if the Bolt weighs less than 3,500 pounds>>>

If the i3 frame and body were built of steel as the Bolt is likely to be, it would add 450lbs. Assuming 10% battery technology improvement, it would need another 30 kwh of battery at 850 more pounds, so you could be close to a 4000 lb car.

Everyone is assuming battery technology is somehow going to double and get the 200 miles with only a slightly larger battery, but a lot of what I read doesn't support that. Musk also seems to think that and is riding the cost reduction horse with his giga factory, but here again I've read some articles that say it will be much less than he's aiming for

Ron

 

[NHi3REx]

As a Rex owner, I'm especially interested to see if any competitors begin to offer similar packages on their new offerings.

For me the Rex (less a slightly larger gas tank) offers the solution to the "typical American" vehicle usage. For me, I have a 35mi round trip daily commute (mostly highway unless I take back roads), but I need the extra range for weekend trips to the beach or mountains.

In the end battery technology will get better and cheaper, and cars will by default begin to have greater range, but unless the charging technology and network are significantly improved, I don't think even 300mi of range would be enough to win over the majority of the American market. Of course, there's always the battery swap idea, but I believe there are simply too many details to be worked out to ever make that a viable solution.

In a few years time, offer a Rex with 150mi electric range and another 150mi reserve miles at 50+ mpg in a more mainstream styled package, and then you'll see a paradigm shift in the American buyer. (Perhaps 200mi electric and 100mi gas would be a better split).

 

[Jeffj]

Disagree slightly with previous post. I think the killer combination is ~150 mile range (200 would be better) plus easy to access fast chargers. In other words, the Tesla model. The only fault in the Tesla model today is that the car can only be purchased by the upper 1% (maybe 5%). A $30K or even $35K car with the range and ability to fast charge for longer trips wins, IMHO, as a 20 minute stop every 3 or so hours is reasonable.

 

[jelloslug]

The simple fact is that other than the Model S there has not been a demonstrated 200 mile EV shown by any manufacturer. Not an engineering test, not a heavily camouflaged test mule, nothing at all. Development times would say that nobody is actually going to have one any earlier than '17 and even that is suspect at this point.